What happens if the Dangote Refinery IPO is oversubscribed?

An IPO is oversubscribed when investors apply for more shares than are available. With nearly ₦1.5 trillion in subscriptions recorded in the first hour of the Dangote Refinery offer — against a base offer size of about ₦2.15 trillion — oversubscription is a real possibility. Paying for shares does not guarantee you will receive all of them.

The greenshoe cushion

The first cushion is the greenshoe: the offer includes a provision for the company to absorb up to 30% oversubscription, subject to Securities and Exchange Commission approval. That is about 1.23 billion additional shares on top of the base 4.1 billion, bringing the maximum possible allotment to roughly 5.33 billion shares.

How the shares are shared out

If demand still exceeds even the expanded pool, the issuer sets a Full-Allotment Threshold. All valid applications at or below that threshold receive their full subscription. Shares left over are distributed among larger applications under an SEC-approved Basis of Allotment, which may scale them back proportionally. In plain terms: small investors are protected first, and bigger orders share what remains fairly.

What happens to your excess money

If you applied for more shares than you receive, the surplus is refunded to you. Reports on the offer terms indicate refunds for unallotted shares are processed within five business days after the allotment is finalised.

The timeline after 13 October

• 13 Oct 2026: offer closes; applications with full payment must be in.
• Late October: registrars collate all applications and submit the proposed allotment plan to the SEC.
• ~Mid-November: SEC approval of the allotment expected.
• Within ~15 business days of approval: shares credited to investors’ CSCS accounts.
• November 2026: expected listing on the NGX — trading can only begin after listing, so there is a gap between paying and being able to sell.

First-time investors without CSCS or Clearing House Number details are allotted through a temporary Registrar Identification Number, with shares held in the Registrar’s custody until valid details are provided. Oversubscription does not change this arrangement.

Quick summary

• Oversubscription means demand beat supply — you may get fewer shares than you paid for.
• A 30% greenshoe can expand the offer to ~5.33 billion shares with SEC approval.
• Small applications are filled first; larger ones are scaled back under an SEC-approved formula.
• Excess money is refunded; shares are credited via CSCS, with listing expected in November 2026.