Economy

The numbers right now

Official naira rate above: Close · Thu 12 Nov 2026 · NGX official close · 5:10pm WAT. Other figures carry their own dates in each card. Refresh

Oil production averaged 1.72m barrels a day and the oil sector grew 7.31%; non-oil grew 4.31% and services made up 56.62% of GDP.

There is no free, reliable daily price for Bonny Light, Nigeria’s own grade: it is assessed privately against Brent. The two public monthly averages for September differ, so we show both rather than pick one quietly.

MPR path in 2026

Reset on 22 Sep 2026: cut 350 bps from 26.50%. The corridor moved to +50/-300 bps and the cash reserve ratio stayed at 45%. The CBN calls this an operational realignment, not a change of stance: market rates already sat near 22%.

The MPC is the CBN committee that sets the MPR. Its decision is the single number that moves T-bill yields, bank lending rates and, indirectly, stock prices.

Inflation picture

HeadlineFood

Food prices fell 1.55% in September itself as the harvest came in, even though food inflation versus a year ago barely moved (19.57% to 19.59%). Core inflation told the opposite story: its monthly pace quickened to 1.11%. And remember: falling inflation means prices rising more slowly, not prices falling.

Real policy rate

Real policy rate = the MPR in force at month end minus that month’s headline inflation, calculated by Nairaview. September’s drop is the MPR reset, not an inflation jump: even after it, policy stays tight by this measure, which is the number analysts argued about when the IMF backed the CBN in October.

External reserves: gross and net

Gross reserves are everything the CBN holds. Net reserves strip out what is already committed, such as swaps and forwards, so they are the truer buffer against a shock. The CBN disclosed both in October: $55.12bn gross on 19 Oct, about $46bn net on 8 Oct.

Cost of government borrowing

Every naira in the stock market competes with a risk-free 15.85% for one year. When that rate falls, shares have to promise less to look attractive. When it rises, they have to promise more.

Revisions and series breaks

• CPI rebased: February 2025 The NBS moved the CPI base from November 2009 to 2024 = 100 and widened the basket from 740 to 934 items. Headline inflation printed 34.80% for Dec 2024 on the old basis and 24.48% for Jan 2025 on the new one. That gap is a measurement change, not a fall in prices, and no chart on this page splices the two series.
• 2025 inflation history revised: December 2025 To avoid a base-effect spike, the NBS re-anchored year-on-year comparisons on the average of 2024 and revised the January to November 2025 rates after first publishing them. November 2025 was first printed at 14.45% and later revised to 17.3%. Where a figure here has been revised, we show the current value and say so.
• GDP rebased: July 2025 GDP moved to a 2019 base year with wider coverage, including the digital economy, pensions and informal activity. Growth rates from before and after the rebasing belong to different series and are never joined on this page.

Upcoming releases

Next up: Stanbic IBTC PMI: November survey, in 21 days (Early Dec 2026).

Confirmed dates come from the publisher’s own calendar. Expected dates are inferred from the usual release pattern: the NBS publishes no advance calendar, so its dates are labelled expected, never scheduled.

How this reaches the stock market

• T-bill yields into bank earnings: Banks hold large books of government paper. When the 364-day stop rate falls, that income shrinks and lending has to do more of the work. In bank results, watch treasury income against loan growth.
• Naira stability into importers’ costs: A steadier naira lowers the cost of imported inputs for consumer-goods makers and of dollar equipment for telcos. In their results, watch gross margins and foreign-exchange losses.
• Oil receipts into contractor payments: Crude sales fund the federal budget. When receipts rise, government contractors and the industrials that supply them tend to get paid faster. In their results, watch receivables and order books.
• Food inflation into household demand: Food is the largest share of household spending. When food inflation eases, spending power returns, first to staples and then to discretionary goods. In consumer results, watch volumes, not just prices.
• Business activity into company order books: The Stanbic PMI surveys purchasing managers every month: above 50, activity is expanding. October’s 55.7, down from September’s 56.4, still signalled a marked improvement, the ninth straight month of expansion, with new orders and output rising sharply. In company results, watch revenue and order books in the months that follow, and margins where input costs rise faster than selling prices: October purchase-price inflation hit a four-month high on fuel costs and firms passed them on.
• See the latest company results on the Earnings board

Figures as of 23 October 2026.