Outlook track record

How to read this page. An honest 80% band should contain the outcome about 80% of the time: if it contains far fewer, our bands are too narrow, and if it contains far more, they are too wide. The same logic holds for the 50% band, which should contain the close about half the time.

Early samples are noisy. With only a few dozen scored outlooks, a handful of outcomes either way moves the percentage a lot, so treat the first numbers as a starting point, not a verdict. The record gets steadier as more outlooks mature.

How scoring works. Every outlook is written to a permanent archive with the date it was made. Once the horizon passes, the actual close is scored against the range. A stock scores once it has traded the required number of sessions, so thinly traded names join the counts later than frequent traders. Stocks that trade in tiny amounts get no outlook at all, so they never enter these counts.

See also: how the outlook ranges are built.