Dangote Refinery IPO: the closing-week case. $4.73bn in nine months, Addis and Gaborone on board.

Africa’s largest IPO enters its final stretch with a fresh set of numbers and three new cross-border chapters. The offer closes on Tuesday 27 October 2026 after the SEC-approved two-week extension, and the week’s developments give late subscribers more to weigh than the prospectus alone.

The nine-month numbers

Released on 13 October, the unaudited results for the first nine months of 2026 show revenue of $22.48bn (against $9.19bn in the same period of 2025, up 144%), net profit of $4.73bn (against a $117.2m loss), and EBITDA of $5.52bn (against $627.6m, up 780%). The EBITDA margin reached 24.56%, up from 6.83%.

The balance sheet moved with it: operating cash flow of $3.68bn (from $364.7m), cash of $6.69bn, and a swing from $1.73bn of net debt to $650.8m of net cash. Managing director David Bird framed the period as the transition to sustained commercial operations. These are company-released, unaudited figures; the audited accounts will tell the final story.

Addis Ababa: depository receipts at 74.90 Birr

At a roadshow in Addis Ababa on 15 October, hosted with the Ethiopian Securities Exchange, the offer opened to Ethiopian investors through depository receipts priced at 74.90 Birr per receipt, each representing one Dangote Refinery share held in Nigeria through a nominee structure. NGX Group chief executive Temi Popoola and United Capital’s Peter Ashade presented the offer.

Access is narrow: a maximum of 100 qualified investors, each needing a minimum net worth of 10 million Birr (excluding one car and a primary residence), with applications through licensed distributors closing on 23 October. Aliko Dangote told the Ethiopian press the broader IPO is already “fully subscribed” (his claim, not an audited figure; the final subscription report is still pending).

Gaborone: the Southern Africa hub

The Committee of SADC Stock Exchanges, representing 14 member exchanges, selected Botswana as the single host trading venue for the IPO’s Southern African component. The decision was announced in Gaborone on 14 October by committee chairman Collen Tapfumaneyi. Access Bank Botswana is to act as depository receipt issuer, with a $500m fundraising target through Botswana receipts (a target, not money raised yet).

The three-country roadshow

NGX Group chairman Umaru Kwairanga led engagements with the Egyptian Exchange, the Ethiopian Securities Exchange and the Botswana Stock Exchange to widen cross-border participation. Egypt is considering Egyptian depository receipts aimed at local institutions and family offices. Alongside the earlier Kenya GDR programme (about $300m) and Uganda’s professional-investor route, the IPO now has regulated doors in six African markets outside Nigeria.

The offer itself, unchanged

The Nigerian offer remains 4.1 billion shares at ₦525 each, about ₦2.15tn ($1.6bn), rising to roughly $2.1bn if the over-allotment option is fully exercised. Minimum subscription is 10 shares (₦5,250). The offer opened on 14 September and closes on 27 October 2026; allotments are expected in November, with the NGX listing targeted for early December.

What to watch in the final ten days

The Ethiopian application deadline (23 October) and the 27 October close are the two hard dates left. After the close, the dates that matter are the allotment announcement and the listing, and whether the final, SEC-approved subscription figures match the “three or four times” oversubscription the company has claimed.

This is a description of the offer’s closing-week position, not investment advice. The definitive terms are in the official offer documents. Sources: Nairametrics, ThisDay, The Reporter Ethiopia, Banks in Ethiopia, Moneyweb/Bloomberg, THEWILL, Voice of Nigeria, Vanguard

Not investment advice. If you subscribed, the next dates that matter are the allotment announcement and the listing.